March 26, 2025

The other day, I was scrolling through LinkedIn again, immersed in the flood of management wisdom, which I contribute to as well. Sometimes, I nod along in agreement; other times, I laugh out loud. Meanwhile, my phone is overflowing with new AI apps (so addictive), and my calendar is packed with meetings with leaders who struggle to keep up with a world moving at lightning speed and want to discuss it with me.

And then I thought: what does this era really demand from a CEO? Do we need an all-season CEO someone who shines from spring to winter? Or do we need a leader who masters just one season an expert at the right moment?

The Shelf Life of a CEO

We hear it often: the CFO is the new CEO. Interesting, but let’s be honest, someone who focuses only on numbers may miss the bigger picture. Or take the CTO as CEO also trendy, but running a company is about more than just understanding the latest tech.

I dare to say: the CEO of the future is not a Swiss army knife with an infinite shelf life. In fact, I’d argue their tenure should be around three years, sometimes even less, depending on the season the company is in. Longer than that? Then you risk becoming more of a burden than a driving force. (Of course, there are exceptions where both sides are happy, and that’s great.)

Look at the numbers: McKinsey research shows that companies stay on the S&P 500 for shorter periods dropping from 61 years in the 1950s to barely 18 years now. Why? Because they fail to keep up. The same applies to their leaders. In my conversations with dozens of companies, I see this repeatedly: success isn’t about a single superstar but about having the right person at the right time.

Dancing with Chaos

This aligns with Heifetz and Linsky’s Adaptive Leadership theory: leadership isn’t a fixed playbook but a dance with the chaos of today. A smart CEO listens to the experts around them otherwise, no matter how good the weather is, the harvest will fail.

So, which type of leader fits which season?

• Spring – Growth Spurt: A process thinker who brings structure while keeping the team in a winning mood.
• Summer – Crisis Mode: A no-nonsense change manager who cuts where necessary but with a warm heart.
• Autumn – Innovation Phase: A creative mind who fosters constant reinvention with the team.
• Winter – Stability & Sustainability: A connector who keeps the team engaged while ensuring steady operations.

The Seasonal CEO vs. The All-Season CEO: Which One Wins?

Research by Hambrick and Fukutomi shows that CEOs go through phases—from a fresh start to stagnation. After a few years, the magic can fade. Look at Apple: the transition from Steve Jobs to Tim Cook wasn’t random; it was a smart seasonal shift. Or consider startups that replace their founders with growth experts when scaling up. I had the opportunity to do this at YoungCapital a while back.

The question is: do you know what season your company is in? And more importantly: do you know what kind of leader you are? Because if you don’t, the market will decide for you and it’s not always forgiving. All-season CEOs exist, but they are becoming increasingly rare. And that’s okay. As long as you recognize when it’s time to pass the baton. Because a leader who stays too long doesn’t bring spring, they bring frost.